Contents
- What is the BANI world?
- Decoding the BANI concept
- How to adapt to the BANI world
- How to do business in the BANI world
- What will replace BANI: SHIVA and TACI
What is the BANI world?
The BANI world (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible) represents a concept of a new anxious reality where even the most reliable systems can suddenly fail. This state is characterized by the idea that the stronger the illusion of stability seems, the more devastating the consequences can be in the event of a disaster. The concept was developed by American futurist Jamais Cascio, who predicted the emergence of the BANI world even before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. He describes this new reality as complex, chaotic, and lacking a clear structure, where the dynamics of growth, big data, and artificial intelligence play key roles.
According to Cascio, everything will change in the BANI world: from global corporations to personal relationships. The era will be marked by the development of technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence. For example, in October 2022, Elon Musk demonstrated a humanoid robot from Tesla that will perform routine and dangerous tasks, replacing humans.
Decoding the BANI concept
The BANI concept has replaced the VUCA world, which was defined by the following characteristics:
- Volatility
- Uncertainty
- Complexity
- Ambiguity
The VUCA paradigm explained the volatility of the world and ongoing crises that required businesses to adopt adaptive strategies. However, for Cascio, this definition has become outdated. He warns that the new reality will demand a critical reassessment from companies and professions, considering the age of developing AI and robotics, which may threaten even the most stable sectors.
Each letter in the term BANI has its meaning:
- Brittle: In the new world, no one is immune to failure. Even stable businesses can suddenly become unnecessary.
- Anxious: Heightened anxiety among people, fueled by constant access to information and news.
- Nonlinear: Small mistakes can have catastrophic consequences, while large efforts may go unnoticed.
- Incomprehensible: Despite the availability of information, many people face information overload and difficulties in understanding what is happening.
How to adapt to the BANI world
Cascio emphasizes the importance of actively embracing the new reality. Crisis becomes an integral part of life, and it is essential to develop crisis management skills and unconventional thinking. He offers three key pieces of advice:
- Strive for self-improvement: Expand your horizons and cultivate curiosity; constantly seek new experiences.
- Develop adaptability: Learn to rely on intuition in uncertain conditions; this will help you adapt to unexpected changes.
- Work on self-awareness: Develop emotional intelligence to better understand and manage your reactions.
How to do business in the BANI world
Financial expert Nassim Taleb offers survival strategies for businesses in the BANI environment. The main principles include:
- Decentralization of power: Reducing dependence on one person's decisions through self-organizing teams.
- Working in short iterations: Shifting to short-term planning instead of long-term forecasting.
- Risk analysis: Using analytics in decision-making and identifying risks.
- Cautious innovations: Changes should be justified by analytics, avoiding excessive transformations.
- The team as a single organism: Forming teams considering individual psychotypes to achieve synergy.
What will replace BANI: SHIVA and TACI
It is anticipated that the BANI world will last for 5-7 years, but two concepts have already emerged that may replace it:
SHIVA
This concept was proposed by psychologist Mark Rosin, who argues that the world is facing destructive processes, but there is hope for a new beginning. SHIVA includes:
- Split: Models and foundations will cease to be brittle and need to be reassessed.
- Horrible: Stress and fear become the norm, and it is crucial for companies to support their employees.
- Inconceivable: It is impossible to predict which action will lead to success or failure.
- Vicious: Chaos is expected to destroy everything in its path.
- Arising: After destruction, a new era will begin, where those who can adapt to changes will succeed.
TACI
Psychologist Sergey Deryabin also proposed a replacement for BANI in the form of the TACI concept, which includes:
- Turbulent: Increased speed of changes and the necessity for quick adaptation.
- Accidental: The future will become unpredictable, requiring the development of flexible thinking.
- Chaotic: Rules and logic will be dismantled, requiring patience and adaptability.
- Inimical: Aggression and a constant sense of danger are expected in society.
Despite predictions of chaos and destruction, history shows that humanity is capable of adapting and evolving even in difficult times.