Contents
- What is the Delphi method
- Application of the Delphi method
- Features of the Delphi method
- Differences from other methods
- Stages of the Delphi method
- Conclusion
What is the Delphi method
The Delphi method is a system for collective decision-making on complex issues, based on anonymous surveys of experts conducted over several rounds. The main task of this method is to gather individual opinions from specialists and form a collective decision based on them. Throughout the study, the organizer develops a questionnaire, which is sent to a group of experts. They, in turn, anonymously respond to the questions, justifying their answers. After analyzing the first rounds, the organizer creates a new questionnaire that reflects the participants' opinions, aiming to evaluate the proposed ideas. Depending on the complexity of the issue, the process can include from two to four rounds.
Application of the Delphi method
The Delphi method is actively used in various fields where knowledge and opinions from specialists are needed to address complex issues. The main areas of application of the method include:
- Marketing and economics: Forecasting market trends.
- Politics: Assessing election results and other political events.
- Sociology: Investigating social issues and developing solutions.
- Science and technology: Determining research and development directions.
- Healthcare: Predicting disease spread and combating epidemics.
- Education: Developing educational programs.
- Ecology: Assessing human impact on the environment.
- Business and finance: Evaluating market trends and forecasting financial changes.
Features of the Delphi method
To conduct a survey effectively using the Delphi method, it is important to adhere to several key principles:
- Anonymity: Participants should be able to freely express their opinions without pressure from more authoritative colleagues.
- Iterative approach: Surveys are conducted over several rounds, allowing for gradual refinement and improvement of question formulations.
- Controlled feedback: In the stage of repeated surveys, experts can review the opinions of other participants and, if necessary, adjust their responses.
- Involvement of experts: It is important that the survey includes specialists with sufficient qualifications and experience in the relevant field.
- Statistical analysis: Participants' opinions are processed using statistical methods, allowing for summarized data and conclusions to be drawn.
Differences from other methods
The Delphi method differs from other collective decision-making methods, such as brainstorming and interviews. The table below illustrates the main differences:
| Criterion | Delphi Method | Brainstorming |
|---|---|---|
| Goal | Find a statistically agreed-upon solution | Gather a multitude of opinions |
| Openness of expression | Anonymous | Public |
| Requirement for proposals | Justification required | Any, even the wildest ideas |
| Critique | There is controlled feedback through a moderator | Critique and discussion of ideas are not encouraged |
Stages of the Delphi method
The Delphi survey goes through several clearly defined stages, which can be divided into three main categories:
- Preparation stage: A team is formed, including a facilitator responsible for organizing the process and analyzing responses. Expert selection is also conducted to ensure a high level of competence among participants.
- Main stage: 2-3 rounds of surveys are conducted. Each round includes the development of questionnaires, collection and analysis of responses, and then adjustment of questions based on the data obtained.
- Analytical stage: Data is processed using statistical methods to obtain summarized results and identify common trends. It is also important to establish methods for assessing the consistency of responses, for example, using a Likert scale.
Conclusion
The Delphi method is a unique tool for addressing complex tasks that require expert opinion. Its application in various fields allows for effective forecasting of trends and finding optimal solutions. Adhering to the fundamental principles of the method and the stages of conducting the survey contributes to the high reliability and significance of the results obtained.