Contents
- What are Murphy's Laws?
- Origin of the term
- How Murphy's Laws work
- Canonical Murphy's Laws
- Murphy's Laws in business
What are Murphy's Laws?
Murphy's Laws are humorous theories based on a simple principle: "if something can go wrong, it will go wrong." In Russia, this phenomenon is also known as the "law of meanness" or the "buttered toast law." A simple example is that a buttered toast always falls butter-side down. However, this theory has its limitations and is not always true.
A classic experiment that tests Murphy's Law was conducted in 1991 in the British science documentary series Q.E.D. During the experiment, 300 sandwiches were tossed, and 148 of them fell butter-side up, indicating a 50/50 probability. Similar results were obtained in the American show "MythBusters" in 2005, where it was demonstrated that sandwiches can fall either butter-side up or down, but in everyday conditions, they tend to flip and fall butter-side down more often.
Origin of the term
The origins of the term "Murphy's Laws" can be traced back to the 19th century, but it gained widespread popularity only in the 1940s thanks to American military engineer Edward Murphy. In 1949, while working at the Edwards Air Force Base, he and his team investigated the causes of aircraft accidents and the extreme loads the human body can withstand. During one of the tests, Murphy noticed an error in the sensor connections, which caused the propeller to spin in the opposite direction. He uttered a phrase that became the foundation for the law: "If something can go wrong, it will." This caught the attention of his superiors, and the term "Murphy's Law" was suggested to describe such situations.
How Murphy's Laws work
Despite the lack of scientific justification, Murphy's Laws often find confirmation in real life. A key point is human memory, which tends to focus on negative events while ignoring positive outcomes. For example, if someone is late for a meeting due to traffic, they may believe that the law of meanness has come into play, not considering instances when they arrived on time.
At Comrades Devs, there have also been mistakes that became lessons for the team, which learned to take the human factor into account and be more attentive at work. This emphasizes that Murphy's Law often operates as a result of coincidences or errors related to miscalculations.
Canonical Murphy's Laws
Arthur Bloch, an American author, compiled and systematized various concepts known as the canonical Murphy's Laws in his book published in 1977. There are seven in total:
- Everything is much more complicated than it seems at first glance.
- Any task will take longer than you think.
- Of all the potential problems, the one that causes the most harm will occur.
- If four causes of a problem are prevented in advance, a fifth will emerge.
- Events that you leave to their own devices will develop according to the worst-case scenario.
- When you start a task, a more urgent one will immediately arise.
- Every decision may provoke new troubles.
Let's consider two of these principles. For instance, a freelancer working on a logo design project may underestimate the complexity of the task and plan to complete it in a few days. During the process, they encounter numerous unexpected difficulties, resulting in delays. This highlights the necessity of thoroughly assessing the workload before starting a project.
Murphy's Laws in business
Entrepreneurs regularly encounter Murphy's Laws. Examples from business include situations where coffee spills on clothing before an important meeting, a key employee quits during a crucial project, or a computer crashes while preparing a tax return. Here are some common examples:
- Clients with the least income are the most likely to complain.
- The worse the financial condition of the company, the more likely unexpected expenses will arise.
- After buying stocks, they immediately begin to decrease in value.
- If two questions are posed in a business letter, the interlocutor will only answer the least important one.
- The more complex the project, the faster it needs to be completed, and the less information will be provided.
To minimize risks, it's important to develop a "Plan B": analyze potential problems and have pre-prepared solutions for unforeseen circumstances. It's also crucial to train employees to reduce errors arising from the human factor. Maintaining calm and acting rationally in stressful situations is essential. The team can utilize tools from the Theory of Constraints to predict and prevent unwanted events in projects.